Indonesian coffee plantation
Indonesian coffee traders are already switching allegiance to Vietnamese Robusta in anticipation of the El Nino, which is expected to peak in early December, according to Britain's Met Office. There is less rainfall in all of Asia and the dry weather could continue into the next year. The Met Office claims that it could well last a few more months before El Nino's impact reduces to some degree. El Nino induces warmer ocean temperatures off the west coast of South America, which could result in changes in weather patterns across the Pacific Ocean. Dry weather is one of them and lack of rain would obviously have a drastic impact on commodity crops, including coffee.
El Nino is predicted to cause lack of rainfall in Indonesia in the first three months of 2016 and lack of proper irrigation facilities could affect the output in the 3rd largest coffee producing nation. Most plantations are owned by smallholders and they are not equipped with the technical expertise or the financial strength to deal with the climatic changes that the El Nino phenomenon could bring in its wake. Production levels can go down by around 30 to 40%, if there is a period of continuous drought.
The Vietnamese Robusta is a convenient option to the Indonesian variety.