The International Coffee Organization (ICO) and the World Coffee Portal recently released very positive reports on retail coffee growth in Asia.
ICO complained of a lack of reliable statistics in China but estimated consumption at 1.9 million 60-kilo bags in 2013/14, making China the 17th largest coffee market in the world. Per capita consumption is just 83 grams, the equivalent of 5 or 6 cups of coffee a year, but residents in urban areas are likely to drink about 2 kg. This is about half the 4.9 kg consumed by residents of the European Union or the 4.4 kg per US capita.
Instant makes up 99% of the retail sales by volume and 98% by value, according to statistics compiled by Euromonitor International. “Nevertheless, the rising popularity of coffee shops and coffee culture in general is promoting growth in fresh roast and groundcoffee. Furthermore, on-trade sales are increasing faster than retail sales, with the number of café outlets in China estimated at 13,834 by the end of 2013,” writes ICO.
The Project Cafe South East Asia report by Allegra estimates the total number of outlets at 14,300 in 2015 with 2,040 opeing in the past year, a 14% growth rate.
The South East Asian branded coffee shop market includes coffee-focused American-style chains across nine countries: China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.
China is the leading market, according to Allegra. Indonesia, expanded by 15% followed by Vietnam “Although the smallest market by size, Vietnam showed the third strongest percentage growth of 14%, albeit from a small base with just 230 branded coffee shops. This locally driven market is defined by the strength of Vietnam’s national chains and is yet to see significant numbers of international branded chains demonstrate strong growth,” according to Allegra. (see Vietnam in Transition, pg. 46)