A new report by Climate Central paints a harrowing picture as maximum temperatures surpass the coffee-harming heat threshold. Map credit: Climate Central
Human-caused climate change is heating the Earth, and a new report by Climate Central shows that this heat is increasing in coffee-producing regions, potentially putting future production at risk.
Climate Central, an independent group of scientists and communicators, examined data from 25 major coffee-producing countries between 2021 and 2025. They found that each country experienced an average of 47 extra days of “coffee-harming heat” above 30°C (86°F). Arabica coffee grows best in a stable climate with consistent, predictable weather patterns and an ideal temperature range between 18-21°C (64-70°F). Above the 30°C “coffee-harming threshold,” trees begin to struggle.
“When temperatures rise above this threshold, coffee plants experience heat stress that can reduce yield, affect bean quality, and increase the vulnerability of plants to disease,” the group wrote in a press release.
“More Days of Extreme Heat”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth’s surface temperature has risen by more than 1°C, since 1850, and 2024 was the hottest year on record (2025 was the third-hottest). This heating is affecting coffee: Major studies have shown that climate change will reduce suitable coffee-producing land by 50% or more by 2050.
For the new report, Climate Central researchers looked at temperature data from 25 countries that together account for 97% of the world’s coffee production. They then compared the data to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution using the Climate Shift Index, a system that quantifies the influence of climate change on local temperatures around the world.
The top five coffee producers — Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia, and
Indonesia — faced an average of 57 extra days of harmful heat each year. Certain countries suffered more: Brazil saw 70 extra days, while El Salvador faced 99 and Nicaragua 77. The report found that these changes would not have been possible without fossil fuel pollution.
“Nearly every major coffee-producing country is now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can harm coffee plants, reduce yields, and affect quality,” said Dr. Kristina Dahl, Climate Central’s vice president for science, in the press release. “In time, these impacts may ripple outward from farms to consumers, right into the quality and cost of your daily brew.”
Impacts on Farmers and Consumers
In their report, Climate Central pointed to the impact of climate change on both smallholder farmers’ livelihoods and the increasing cost for consumers. A 2025 report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations found that the coffee price spike that began in 2024 was at least partially due to climate shocks, particularly in Vietnam and Brazil.
“Coffee farmers in Ethiopia are already seeing the impact of extreme heat,” said Dejene Dadi, general manager of Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union, in Climate Central’s press release. More than 4 million households in Ethiopia rely on coffee as their primary source of income, while a 2017 study found that as much as 60% of the country’s coffee-growing regions could be lost by the end of the century. Some farmers are already moving their production uphill in search of cooler temperatures.
“Coffee farming is part of our cultural heritage, and coffee trees are symbols of continuity and pride,” Dadi said. “Ethiopia is the birthplace of coffee, and Ethiopian coffee farmers are key to safeguarding its future.”