The International Coffee Organization predicts global coffee production will remain “relatively stable, up 0.1% to 151.6 million 60-kilo bags.
“Arabica production is potentially set for a record 93.5 million bags with bumper crops from Colombia and Honduras,” according to ICO. Prospects for robusta supply, on the other hand, are less positive, with lower crops expected from most major origins.
Output from Brazil, the largest producer, is expected to recover strongly following two years of drought, with total production in 2016/17 currently estimated at 55 million bags. This recovery is expected in the arabica crop, which is in the on-year of its biennial cycle, ICO reports. Conab was less optimistic predicting 47.5 million bags with arabica between 35 and 38 million and robusta at 8.5 to 9.6 million bags.
Brazil has postponed further discussion in a heated debate on importing robusta. The matter will likely be decided by the country’s president.
Production in Vietnam reached a record 28.7 million bags in 2015 but prospects are less positive in 2016 with estimates around 25.5 million bags. Colombia’s coffee totals are already 5.4% higher than last year at 4.4 million bags.