Projections for a good harvest, despite 2019 being an “off harvest” year, sent coffee prices to 10-year lows. The monthly average compiled by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) fell to 94 cents per pound in April, a decrease of 3.2% from March and 16% lower than in April 2018.
“This represents the lowest monthly average composite indicator since July 2006 when it reached 88.6 cents per pound, according to ICO. Daily prices during April were the lowest since August 2006, a month when coffee sold for 89 cents per pound.
In its latest report, ICO said market fundamentals are the main driver of low prices, with production exceeding total consumption by 3.7 million 60-kilo bags during 2018/19.
“This is the second consecutive season of surplus with a cumulative total of 8.4 million bags,” reports ICO. Low prices discourage exports which were 3.8% lower than in March 2018. Shipments during the first half of the coffee year rose by 4.1% to 63 million bags, reflecting the ample supply of coffee on the international market.
Low prices do not impact consumers who continue to pay for their daily latte or a shot of espresso. The all-restaurant average cost of coffee is $2.99 per cup, up 8 cents compared to 2018, according to NPD Group. At specialty coffee shops the average is $4.24 due to more expensive coffee (35 cents per serving) and the cost of milk.
It’s different for farmers. When prices fall below $1 per pound they quit spending on fertilizers, herbicides, and pests, lowering yields and leaving them vulnerable to insects and disease. Combined with social unrest, coffee growers in parts of Colombia, Central America, and Africa simply give up.