Photo courtesy Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew
Wild_Coffee_in_Jeopardy
Researchers are concerned that changing climate will reduce diversity
By Dan Bolton
Ethiopia’s bounty of wild coffee trees, essential to ensure healthy diversity among the world’s coffee plants, are in danger. Scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens in Kew, England, estimate 60% of wild coffee species are threatened with extinction, causing concern for the future of coffee production. In its genetic birthplace arabica, the world’s most popular coffee is now categorized as an endangered plant species.
Scientists at Kew say current conservation measures for wild coffee species are inadequate to ensure the long-term future of coffee. Kew researchers, in collaboration with the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), have placed 124 coffee species on the IUCN Red List. The implications of these findings, published in January in the journals Science Advances and Global Change Biology, paint a picture of concern for the long-term future of global coffee production.
Deforestation along with climate change, and the spread and increasing severity of fungal pathogens and pests all contribute to IUCN’s concern for the many wild relatives of Coffea arabica.
Two decades of research
These new figures come after two decades of dedicated research undertaken by Kew to discover, analyze, and document the world’s coffee species, and assess their extinction risk. Much of this work was undertaken first-hand in the wild locations where coffee grows, mainly in the remote forests of Africa and; on the island of Madagascar. In 2012, Kew researchers and in-country collaborators revealed a bleak picture for wild arabica. Using computer modeling they were able to project how a changing climate would affect the species in Ethiopia, showing that the number of locations where arabica grows could decrease by as much as 85% by 2080. In 2017, the Kew-Ethiopia team turned its attention to the influence of climate change on coffee farming, showing that up to 60% of the land used for Ethiopia’s coffee production could become unsuitable for use by the end of the century. This recent work continues Kew’s long-standing research on wild coffee species, which dates to the mid-1800s.
The multi-billion-dollar coffee sector is founded on, and has been sustained through, the use of wild coffee species. Included among the 60% under threat of extinction are those that could be key to the future of coffee production. The global coffee trade currently relies on only two species – arabica (60%) and robusta (40%) – but given the myriad of emerging and worsening threats to coffee farming globally, other coffee species are likely to be required for coffee crop plant development.
Aaron Davis, head of coffee research at Kew and lead author of the Science Advances paper, says: “Among the coffee species threatened with extinction are those that have potential to be used to breed and develop the coffees of the future, including those resistant to disease and capable of withstanding worsening climatic conditions. The use and development of wild coffee resources could be key to the long-term sustainability of the coffee sector. Targeted action is urgently required in specific tropical countries, particularly in Africa, to protect the future of coffee.”
“We hope our findings will be used to influence the work of scientists, policymakers and coffee sector stakeholders to secure the future of coffee production — not only for coffee lovers around the world but also as a source of income for farming communities in some of the most impoverished places in the world,” said Davis
Eimear Nic Lughadha, senior research leader in Kew’s Conservation Department and lead scientist for Kew’s Plant Assessment Unit said: “This is the first time an IUCN Red List assessment has been carried out to find the extinction risk of the world’s coffee, and the results are worrying. A figure of 60% of all coffee species threatened with extinction is extremely high, especially when you compare this to a global estimate of 22% for plants. Some of the coffee species assessed have not been seen in the wild for more than 100 years, and it is possible that some may already be extinct. We hope this new data will highlight species to be prioritized for the sustainability of the coffee production sector so that appropriate action can be taken to safeguard their future.”
The future
The importance of arabica to Ethiopia is paramount. Ethiopia is the natural birthplace of wild arabica coffee and Africa’s largest coffee exporter, with an annual export value of $1 billion employing 15 million workers. Wild Arabica coffee is an important source of seed stock for coffee farming, a source of disease resistance, and also a harvested crop in its own right, but could be in serious jeopardy if conservation action is not taken to protect the plant from a changing climate and deforestation. The second paper, authored by Kew and Ethiopian researchers and published in Global Change Biology this week, reports the status of arabica coffee, never-before formally assessed for its extinction risk. Their detailed assessment includes climate change projections, which show the species to be endangered, with its natural population estimated to reduce by up to 50% or more by 2088 due to climate change alone.Kew’s research shows that appropriate interventions – for example, assisted migration, forest preservation, and regeneration - could make a substantial difference to the future of wild Arabica coffee in Ethiopia, reducing the risk of extinction with long-term benefits for Ethiopian coffee farming.