Colombia: local consumption and exports up
In marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Colombian coffee production will be 14.1m bags green bean equivalent (GBE), assuming excessive rains during the first quarter of the year will marginally impact the October/November harvest.
Colombian coffee consumption continues to increase; however, Covid-19 containment measures impact consumption patterns. In MY 2021/22, coffee exports will slightly decrease to 13.5m bags GBE, driven by lower production levels. In MY 2020/21, the revised production estimate is up from 14.1 to 14.3m bags GBE, mainly due to favorable weather conditions and the success of harvesting plans during the COVID-19 pandemic. Revised coffee exports are up from 13.6 to 13.8m bags GBE due to increasing production, higher international prices, and the Colombian peso devaluation.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/colombia-coffee-annual-5
Costa Rica: increases less than expected; production unchanged
Costa Rica’s coffee production increased less than originally expected in MY 2020/2021. However, production levels have been more stable during the last two crops, after experiencing variations of about 15% during the two previous marketing years. Production remained almost unchanged in MY 2020/2021, increasing by 0.4% to 1,472,202 60-kg bags, based on preliminary data from the Costa Rican Coffee Institute (ICAFE). Although it is still early in the new marketing year, production is forecast slightly higher at 1,485,000 bags for MY 2021/2022.
The Covid-19 pandemic did not impact Costa Rica’s MY 2019/2020 production because the harvest was for the most part over when the sanitary restrictions were implemented in March of 2020. However, the sanitary measures that were implemented for human protection limited the availability of migrant workers who generally work during the harvest. This situation resulted in uncertainty among producers and created problems during the harvest of the current crop, resulting in lower output than initially forecast.
Ecuador: Covid-19 a drag on harvesting/processing
Coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (April to March) will be 261,000 60-kilogram bags GBE basis, an increase of 2% over the MY 2020/2021 estimate of 255,000 bags. Despite government and private sector efforts to recover national coffee production, planted area in marketing year 2021/2022 remains at 60,000 hectares. Exports will fall to 444,000 bags after a jump in exports the previous year. The continued Covid-19 pandemic could cause some issues with harvesting and processing of coffee in Ecuador.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/ecuador-coffee-annual-5
El Salvador: Struggles due to low prices/climate change
El Salvador’s coffee production will reach 519,000 60-kg bags in marketing year (MY) 2020/21. The Salvadoran coffee sector struggles mainly due to low international prices, climate change, continued coffee leaf rust, and a lack of a long-term strategy that hinders investment at the farm level. The MY2021/22 crop will slightly rebound to 528,000 bags. The Covid-19 pandemic also affects the sector due to a reduction in farm worker availability to carry out post-harvest coffee berry picking and processing. The government announced a coffee sector rescue program that will renovate approximately 35,000 hectares, as well as re-structure debt, and create a coffee research institute.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/el-salvador-coffee-annual-6
Ethiopia: local consumption on the rise
Ethiopia is the African region’s largest producer and consumer of coffee. Coffee production in Ethiopia grew steadily over the past three years and, with suitable growing conditions, will reach to 7.62m bags (457,200 MT) in 2021/22. 50-55% of Ethiopia’s production is consumed domestically. Local consumption will increase to 3.55m bags in MY 2020/21.
Ethiopia is the largest coffee exporter in the region and its shipments are primarily green coffee. In 2019, the country enacted a new marketing and export policy to allow direct coffee exports by smallholders with minimum of two hectares of land and by commercial farms in order to encourage vertical integration and improve coffee traceability. Exports from October 2019 to September 2020 reached to 4.135m bags (248,129 MT), 2326 MT lower than MY 2018/19. Ethiopia’s primary export destinations in 2019/20 were Saudi Arabia, Germany, US, Japan, and Belgium.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/ethiopia-coffee-annual-6
Guatemala: Steady even with double hurricanes
Guatemala coffee planted area in MY2021/2022 remains steady at 305,000 hectares (ha), but harvested area will increase 2% as planted trees mature. Production will be 3.47 million 60-kg bags, a 10% increase compared to 3.15m 60-kg bags estimated for the MY2020/2021 harvest, hit by hurricanes Eta and Iota at the beginning of the harvest. Between the storms and the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, the harvest dropped 16%. Exports in MY2021/2022 will be 3.2m bags. Consumption in MY2021/2022 will slightly recover as hotels, restaurants, and coffee shops open, but continue with limitations due to less than 1% of the Guatemalans being Covid-19 vaccinated as of May.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/guatemala-coffee-annual-6
Honduras: Production and exports down
The production forecast for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is 5.5m bags, a 12% reduction from the previous year. Favorable weather conditions for a higher incidence of leaf rust will impact production directly. Covid-19 incidence will remain high in Honduras and post-hurricane road infrastructure rehabilitation efforts will still be underway. As a consequence, MY2021/22 export forecast is 5m bags, down to MY 2019/2020 levels.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/honduras-coffee-annual-5
India: Robusta yields and exports up
Post forecasts marketing year (MY) 2021/22 coffee production (Oct/Sep) to increase by 5% to 5.41m bags. Above normal pre-monsoon rains coupled with expectations of a normal monsoon will improve yields, especially for robusta in major growing regions. Exports will be 5.68m bags due to robust demand in Europe and the United States. This export increase will lead to tighter stocks. Domestic coffee consumption will be 1.2 bags, driven by at-home consumption as the hospitality sector remains closed due to Covid-19 lockdown measures.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/india-coffee-annual-5
Indonesia: Modest declines and local consumption steady
Coffee production will modestly decline to 10.63m bags in 2021/22 on lower yields in robusta and arabica growing regions. Consumption remains below pre-pandemic levels as various social distancing restrictions continue to hamper food service sector growth. Green bean imports will continue to decline as industry utilizes more competitively priced local beans.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/indonesia-coffee-annual-5
Mexico: Efforts on to fight rust and increase production
Mexico coffee production for marketing year (MY) 2021/22 is at similar levels to the previous MY, due to labor shortages and ongoing drought conditions in some states that are degrading tree and soil health. Ongoing public and private sector efforts to increase production and efficiency by replanting rust resistant tree varieties has minimal effect due to low financing for producers, a lack of robust technical and marketing assistance, and continued low global prices.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/mexico-coffee-annual-5
Peru: Products and export up
Coffee production in marketing year (MY) 2021/22 (April/March) will rebound 17%, reaching 3.95m bags This expected increase comes from good weather conditions and improved international coffee prices. Peru’s coffee exports in MY 2021/22 will be 3.85m bags, increasing 16% from the previous year.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/peru-coffee-annual-5
Tanzania: Increases in quality, inputs mean exports shoot up
MY 2021/22 coffee production will increase by 3.7% to 1.4m bags due to increased fertilizer use, improved extension services, and an anticipated high-producing period of the crop-bearing cycle. Domestic consumption will remain at 50,000 bags. Meanwhile, total coffee exports will increase 34% to 1.38m bags due to an increase in quality and easing Covid-19 restrictions in Tanzania and neighboring countries.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/tanzania-coffee-annual-5
Vietnam: Improved weather conditions and irrigation
Posts forecasts Vietnam coffee production for marketing year 2021/2022 (MY21/22) at 30.83m bags, GBE, on improved weather conditions and irrigation that support yields. Post revised MY20/21 coffee exports down to 23.65m bags (GBE), lower than USDA’s official number based on strong competition and logistical difficulties. Post also revised MY20/21 stock up to 7.23m bags on lower exports.
For full report: https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/vietnam-coffee-annual-6