Point of View
Though the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines worldwide is uneven, to say the least, and various supply chain challenges slows progress in some locations, soon after we go to print with this issue the world will reach the milestone of having one billion people vaccinated. As more and more cities and countries test the waters of re-opening, the coffee and tea industries are showing signs of a comeback; not across the board, but in particular sectors. In this issue, we focus on some of the stories that give us hope for the future.
Bethany Haye reports that the World Bank forecasts average annual arabica prices will stay well above US$3.00 into 2025, having hit a high of $3.38 per pound in 2020. (Last year saw the first drop in global demand since 1995, so this is positive news, at least for the short-term.)
There are also signs of hope in South Sudan comingby the way of coffee. While the economy appears fragile, this is territory ripe for planting, and a new plan promoting peace and improved livelihoods for coffee producers offers the possibility of recovering from the damage of civil war. Shem Oirere offers an in-depth analysis.
Things are a little trickier in the realm of logistics, reports Dan Bolton. While the pandemic boosted direct-to-consumer sales for some companies, the downside is that many found themselves unprepared for the challenges — and costs — of shipping, not to mention the many delays carriers face across the board.
Tea contributor Peter Keen details benefits of unpredictability that premiumization can capitalize on, namely product assurance, customer delivery network, personalization levers, and potentially bigger margins.
And in a two-part feature on the tea of tomorrow (with the second part being e-magazine exclusive content), Peter also provides expert and scientific insight on clonal development and the genetic science of tea and what’s in store for the future of tea varietals.
In a bonus online feature, Thomas Schmid looks at Starbucks’ move into Laos, further solidifying its network in Southeast Asia. Whether this is a welcome arrival to all or not, it signals the coffee giant’s confidence in this emerging market and in the health of the industry, in general.
Thomas also offers us a take on the most “sustainable” single-serve pods on the market (in quotes because of the ever-changing sense of what sustainability means in this segment). From PLA to aluminum to ordinary paper, several companies vie for business among companies looking to be as green as possible.
And in possibly less uplifting news with global knock-on effects for world coffee supplies, Brazil’s 2021-2022 coffee crop – currently facing stress and drought – could drop considerably. But, not all agree that yields might drop to 10-year lows, and any dropoff this year comes on the heels of last year’s record harvest.
While the problems facing the coffee and tea industries in the years to come are formidable, these hopeful stories encourage us to look on the bright side.