Safeguarding Ethiopia’s CoffeeTakes on New Urgency

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LONDON, UK

By Dan Bolton 

Royal Botanic Gardens researcher Aaron Davis hesitated last year to leap to conclusions despite three intense years of study, but the initial work done by his team showed trouble ahead for Ethiopia’s coffee gardens. 

“I prefer to wait until the research is reviewed by experts,” said Davis, who discussed his preliminary findings at the International Coffee Organization’s first coffee congress. Davis is a meticulous scientist wary of climate alarmists. That is why his team logged 1,800 data points for the model, ran 2,000 computer simulations, and traveled 30,000 kilometers to collect data and interview farmers. Researchers mapped more than 750,000 sq.km (about two-thirds of the country) and generated 800 million image pixels to map the coffee forest. 

In June the peer-reviewed journal Nature Plants, published results of the study managed by Davis under the title: ‘Resilience potential of the Ethiopian coffee sector under climate change’ 

Skipping the detail three bullet points emerge: 

The bad - up to 60% of the land currently producing Ethiopia’s coffee could be unsuitable for coffee farming before the end of the century. 

The good - moving coffee production to higher ground, known as upsloping, combined with forest conservation and restoration that could substantially increase the area suitable for coffee growing. 

The risk - Ethiopia is the fifth largest coffee producer in the world, harvesting a crop that employs 15 million and contributes a quarter of the country’s export earnings. Getting it wrong could do irreparable damage to the world’s most important source of coffee. 

Justin Moat, co-leader of the study at Kew Gardens said: “This is the culmination of many years work, where we are trying to understand in detail the influence of climate change on coffee production in Ethiopia. We found that a ‘business as usual’ approach could be disastrous for the Ethiopian coffee economy in the long-term. Timely, precise, science-based decision making is required now and over the coming decades, to ensure sustainability and resilience for the Ethiopian coffee sector.” The new study uses detailed computer modeling developed by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), and high-resolution satellite imagery to map the coffee growing landscape of Ethiopia, in combination with numerous computer simulations, to project changes in climatic suitability for coffee under different climate change scenarios until the end of this century. 

Safeguarding Ethiopia’s Coffee Takes on New Urgency

Photo by Aaron Davis/Kew Botanic Gardens

Safeguarding Ethiopia’s Coffee Takes on New Urgency

Drought-stricken coffee trees

The research shows that an increase in temperature of around 4°C by the end of this century could lead to a 39–59% decrease in the current coffee-growing area of Ethiopia, if no interventions are made. Conversely, relocation of coffee-growing areas could potentially result in a fourfold increase in the coffee farming area within Ethiopia, even under climate change. This would require a major shift in the coffee growing landscape, mostly to higher altitudes, as temperatures continue to increase. Considerable numbers of farmers would need to diversify away from coffee, whilst others would need to take up coffee growing for the first time. 

Generally, those areas that are currently marginal for coffee farming will decline first, although some areas that are highly suitable today are projected to decline more rapidly than expected. Some areas will have in-built climate resilience, mainly due to their current suitability and geographical position. The research provides climate change projections for each of Ethiopia’s 16 main coffee growing areas. 

Feedback from coffee farmers and field study of coffee farming sites indicates that coffee farming has already been negatively influenced by climate change in Ethiopia, and that these changes happen slowly (over many decades) until tipping points are reached. 

Scientists at the Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew and collaborators in Ethiopia have today published an innovative new study on the impact of climate change on coffee farming in Ethiopia. The research, conducted over a three-year period, investigated the potential for building a climate resilient coffee economy for Ethiopia. 

Ethiopia is the world’s fifth largest coffee producer and Africa’s main exporter. In 2015/16, 180,000 metric tonnes of coffee at a value of US$800m was exported from the country, generating a quarter of the country’s export earnings and providing livelihoods for around 15 million Ethiopians. Against a backdrop of rapidly increasing temperatures and decreasing rainfall, there was an urgent need to understand how climate change is influencing coffee production and what the options for the future are. 

In its wild state arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a forest plant restricted to the highlands of Ethiopia and neighbouring South Sudan. It has been used in Ethiopia as a food and beverage for many hundreds, if not thousands, of years. Currently, 80% of Ethiopia’s coffee comes from forests or forest-like habitats, and covers around 20,000 km of the country’s landscape, with another 20% grown in small plots in sun or partial shade. 

Dr. Aaron Davis of RBG Kew, co-leader of the research said: “On the basis of the study we now have a clear vision of what needs to be done to make the Ethiopian coffee sector climate resilient, at least until the end of this century. The sector has the potential to increase production, even under climate change. In the longer term, however, the only truly sustainable solution is to combat the root causes of climate change.” 

Professor Sebsebe Demissew, a senior botanical scientist from the University of Addis Ababa and a co-author of the research. concludes: “Arabica coffee originates from the highland forests of Ethiopia, and it is our gift to the world. As Ethiopia is the main natural storehouse of genetic diversity for Arabica coffee, what happens in Ethiopia could have long-term impacts for coffee farming globally.” 

Learn more: http://www.kew.org/science/projects/building-a-climate-resilient-coffee-economy-for-ethiopia

Read the report: https://www.nature.com/articles/nplants201781

Facts and Figures: Ethiopia and Coffee

  • Ethiopia is the true home of arabica coffee. Wild arabica coffee is only found in the highlands of southern Ethiopia and a small area of neighboring South Sudan.
  • In 2015/16 Ethiopia exported coffee around 180,000 metric tons of coffee, worth in excess of $800 million USD.
  • Ethiopia is the world’s fifth largest exporter of coffee and Africa’s main exporter.
  • Most of Ethiopia’s coffee is grown in association with either native forests or native tree species, which provides the shade necessary for optimum growth and health.
  • Currently, around 19,000 sq.km of Ethiopia dedicated to forest or forest-like coffee production of one type or another, which is about the size of Wales or El Salvador.
  • Ethiopia has the current potential (climatic suitability) to use around 45,000 sq.km for coffee farming, more than twice the size of Wales or El Salvador. 

Coffee and climate in Ethiopia 

  • Presently coffee is mainly confined to altitudes between 1,200-2,200 m. 
  • The ideal average temperature for growing coffee is between 18 and 22°C. 
  • Typically, over 1,300 mm of annual rainfall is needed to grow coffee. 

Coffee and climate change in Ethiopia 

  • In the last 50 years, the average temperature in Ethiopia has increased by around 1.5°C. 
  • The mean annual temperature of Ethiopia is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.1°C by the 2060s, and 1.5 to 5.1°C by the 2090s. This would be the equivalent of moving from London to the South of France. 
  • A critical factor in the suitability of coffee farming is the interaction between rainfall and temperature; higher temperatures could be tolerated if there was an increase in rainfall.