Darwin’s theory of natural selection is not inherently inhumane. Natural selection may be cruel to individuals – but it sometimes rewards altruism directed to kin, and by extension community – a highly generous aspect of biological evolution.*
From the Managing Editor's Desk
Dan Bolton,STiR managing editor
The reality is that the world’s economies are moving toward a global recession, an era of complex and expensive trading conditions and unpredictable weather.
While an admirable pursuit, embracing sustainable sources and getting their supply base to adopt practices that benefit society as a whole will likely drive subsistence growers out of business as labor expenses rise, yields fall, and the cost of inputs increase, resulting in lower farm profitability. In a few years, there will be many fewer growers – millions fewer.
The least capable will simply be unable to compete. Africa will have to embrace mechanization (on the scale that we see in Brazil) and the 20 distinct growing regions of fertile Guatemala will get winnowed to perhaps 10.
Countries best suited to coffee, those where private industry and government fully commit to innovation, mobilizing growers, and enhancing infrastructure will earn their survival. The fittest will prevail but not without support.
In this light, the global coffee leaders forum, hosted by the International Coffee Organization (ICO), has for the first time committed all of coffee’s leading stakeholders to implement concrete solutions addressing the current coffee pricing crisis. Adopting a clear road map for a sustainable future is at once noble and self-serving.
The ICO’s CEO Global Leaders Forum demonstrates there is a consensus building in the public and government sector … one that balances consumer empathy to growers’ plight due to poverty that affects lifestyles and cultures leading to helplessness and, in many instances, forced abandonment of home and hearth.
But persistently low prices in commodity markets do not signal the end of days. The pricing crisis underway demonstrates that large scale roasters buying from multinational traders have no interest in fixing prices in hopes of making small growers efficient, essentially subsidizing their operations and bringing them up to the level of quality expected from growers in Brazil and Vietnam. However, the private sector is responsive to earning premium prices.
Countries that adopt large-scale coffee monoculture, embrace mechanization and invest in technology find that selling at US$1 (BRL414) per pound (earning BRL195,000 for a 20-foot container) is sustainable. Vietnamese growers shipping 21 metric tons bulk are cashing checks for VND1.1 billion ($47,000) per container.
Commodity coffee buyers are content that five countries (essentially one major producer per continent) will supply 90% of their needs. Organic coffee growers in Jamaica or Hawaii or women-owned specialty growers in Huehuetenango, Guatemala earning higher prices will be profitable but niche. Getting closer to growers by building relationships through the sustainability agenda benefits roasters at every level. No one wants to buy coffee off the open market and face volatility in prices given increasing risks associated with the changing climate, a wildcard in every coffee region on earth.
In the big picture growing the world’s population from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050 will place significant pressure on the global food supply chain, raising issues on land availability, food security, and especially water. Agriculture accounts for 70% of water consumed globally and coffee cultivation is water-intensive. Since one arabica plant produces one pound (455 grams) of coffee per year, drinking 1.5 cups of coffee a day requires 14 trees per year – just for you. Growers in regions where the cost of production is more than double that of the largest producers should concede that switching crops is ultimately the most sustainable option.
This is because coffee competes for land, water, and resources that are becoming far more precious over time.