ASSAM, Jorhat
During the decade ahead, green tea production is expected to increase at three times the rate of black tea, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
Green tea production will increase an estimated 7.5% annually over the next decade compared to black tea at 2.2% (CAGR). Black tea is produced in greater quantities, and it predominates in the export market, but the production and export of green tea have accelerated, a trend FAO considers long-term.
The findings were discussed at the 23rd session of the FAO’s Intergovernmental Group on tea (IGG). Members met in Hangzhou, China, on May 17-23. The report was made public last week.
Black tea production globally is estimated to increase to 4.4 million metric tons by 2027 from an estimated 3.33 million metric tons in 2017. Green tea production is projected to increase to 3.6 million metric tons per year from 1.77 million tons in the same period.
India and China are driving the surge, but all four countries that produce the greatest quantity of green tea are experiencing demand both domestic and for export.
They are ranked as follows: China, Japan, Vietnam, and Indonesia.
Green tea output in China, the world's largest producer, is estimated to increase to 3.31 million metric tons in 2027 from 1.52 million metric tons in 2017.
Black tea gains in China
Global consumption of black tea is estimated to increase to 4.16 million metric tons in 2027 from 3.29 million metric tons in 2017, according to FAO.
Kenya, India, and Sri Lanka will account for most black tea growth. Black tea production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is projected to rise to 1.61 million metric tons in the next decade from 1.26 million tons in 2017.
"The rapid growth of black tea consumption in China is due to the popularity of brick teas such as Pu'er, which are heavily promoted for their health benefits," it says.
“Over the next decade, Western countries, in general, are expected to see lower consumption growth. In the UK, for instance, tea consumption is projected to decrease as black tea struggles to maintain consumers' interest amid increased competition from other beverages, including coffee,” according to FAO.
Demand for tea overall has accelerated because of the ongoing retail revolution and consumer education. Consumers in both the industrial countries and producing lands show greater interest in where tea is sourced, the health benefits of drinking tea and how to properly brew it. The result is greater consumer interest in a variety of teas, and a refinement in consumer taste. The resulting premiumization has undermined commodity offerings in many countries.
"Global tea consumption and production are projected to keep rising over the next decade, driven by robust demand in developing and emerging countries," the FAO said. This will create new rural income opportunities and improve food security in tea-producing countries, according to the report.
The UN body said that consumption of tea has grown rapidly in China, India and other emerging economies, driven by a combination of higher incomes and efforts to diversify production to include specialty items such as herbal teas, fruit infusions, and flavored gourmet teas.
Tea consumption has also benefited from increased awareness about the beverage's anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, and weight loss effects. Health and well-being is a key driver of future consumption growth, according to FAO.
Climate change concerns
FAO stressed the need to take urgent steps to reduce the impact of climate change. The range in which tea thrives “in a very limited number of countries, many of which will be heavily impacted by climate change,” FAO notes.
The report warns that "tea production is highly sensitive to changes in growing conditions.”
“Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, with more floods and droughts, are already affecting yields, tea product quality and prices, lowering incomes and threatening rural livelihoods," according to IGG. It is predicted these conditions will intensify, requiring urgent adaptation measures.
The FAO further urged tea-producing countries to integrate climate change challenges, both on the adaptation and mitigation front, into their national tea development strategies.
Correspondent Pullock Dutta, in Assam, contributed to this report.
Source: FAO IGG, FAOSTAT and the International Tea Committee (ITC)