Intermittent pre-monsoon thunderstorms are doing more harm than good as India’s Brahmaputra Valley experiences a dry spell that has lowered tea yields in Assam by an estimated 10-15%.
Little early-spring rainfall in Assam and West Bengal curtailed plucking and idled factories that are now contending with logistics challenges tied to a massive surge of Covid-19 infections. Many workers are on leave during the slowdown and lockdown. At the time of this writing, weather is a far greater threat to the harvest than Covid-19, but infections in the tea lands are rising. Lockdowns are imminent with far-reaching impact as auctions slow and everyday activities such as truck delivery and port activity react.
“We were hopeful of a fresh start this year but prospects look bleak because of the drought-like situation,” Prabir Bhattacharjee, general secretary of the Tea Association of India (TAI), told the Times of India.
Tea Board of India statistics shows yields are down 10-15% in Assam in March and April, with March down 30% compared to 2019. North Bengal reported harvesting only 1.92 million kilos (m.kg) this year compared to 4.04 m.kg in 2019 during January-February. Demand remains strong, according to TAI, but tea prices have not surged as in 2020.
Hailstorms No Help
Rainfall measured 14.2mm in January and February, well below the 28.47mm that fell during the same period last year. Cachar received only 4.15mm through February. Terai rainfall totals were 6.15 mm compared to 19.1mm last year. The dry weather makes it more likely that local hailstorms like those in recent days near the Chengmari Tea Estate in Jalpaiguri will continue. Contact between dry and moist air masses power 60 -80 km per hour winds, torrential rains, and hail in Assam and Northeastern India. Known as the “spring shower”, these storms occur before the monsoon, originating over the Chotanagpur Plateau and carried eastwards.
Meteorologists expect an above-average monsoon in the next few weeks, but tea bushes need steady rainfall until the arrival of the monsoons in summer. The monsoon has been intermittent in recent years. According to the India Meteorological Department, the last time that India experienced three consecutive years of normal monsoon weather was between 1996-1998. The department’s April forecast is for the June 1-September 30 southwest monsoon to bring normal or above normal rainfall, which averages 907mm. The privately operated Skymet Weather forecasting system estimates the monsoon at 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA) this year. According to a report in the Assam Sentinel, rainfall was 109% of the LPA in 2020 and 110% in 2019.
Assam harvests about 10.5% of the region's annual total in the first quarter, typically 75 m.kg. The region produced 618 m.kg in 2020, accounting for more than half of the tea grown in India.