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Report Cover
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Coffee growers will experience severe declines in yield per hectare, quality, and harvest. Chart courtesy Fairtrade International.
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Tea growers will experience moderate declines in yield per hectare, quality, and harvest. Chart courtesy Fairtrade International.
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Extreme climate occurrences (India) in Southern India impact coffee and tea growers. The greatest threat is water scarcity, followed by high temperatures and storms. Chart courtesy Fairtrade International.
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Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are described in two climate scenarios through 2050. RCP4.5 is the current trajectory, and RCP8.5 is the more extreme scenario. RCP4.5 assumes global mitigation will enable the atmosphere to stabilize by 2100. RCP8.5 presents a future where mitigation efforts fail and greenhouse gases remain high.
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Fairtrade International surveyed farmers in 1,379 locations and 50 research papers on climate to compile the report: Fairtrade and Climate Change. A systematic review, hotspot analysis, and survey.
Limited access to capital makes it difficult for farmers to finance adaptations to changing climate that will generally lower yield, reduce quality, and lead to more instances of catastrophic failure in coffee and tea "hotspots."
According to Fairtrade International, a hotter and drier climate poses a severe financial threat to millions of farmers in major tea-growing regions.
Last week, the organization released a 148-page report ahead of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland (COP26). Fairtrade c.e.o. Nyagoy Nyong'o called the study's results "extremely alarming and a clarion call for immediate and comprehensive climate action."
The study assessed climate impacts on bananas, cocoa, coffee, cotton, sugarcane, and tea producers. Juan Pablo Solis, Fairtrade's senior advisor for climate and environment, said, "the way climate change affects the planet is extraordinarily complex," citing "mounting challenges that they [Fairtrade International certified farmers] face if the international community continues to fail them."
In summarizing the impact on coffee, the authors state that coffee-producing locations will be subject to considerable increases in the number of days of extreme temperatures, especially under the high emissions scenario. "Particularly problematic are areas where this will coincide with an increase in the number of days without rainfall, such as Brazil, Central America, and South India,” according to the report.
“Although there are regions where climate change might not have such negative impacts on coffee production in the future [Colombia, Peru, Ethiopia, Kenya], the extent of other areas that might experience such increases in heat and drought occurrence could severely impact the stability of sourcing of Fairtrade coffee,” according to the study.
The authors named East and South Africa and South and Southeast Asia as "hotspots" likely to suffer heat stress in tea.
“Asian tea producers will, on average, experience slightly more days without precipitation. While most African tea producers will experience fewer days without precipitation, producers in Malawi and Tanzania will be severely impacted by increases in days without precipitation,” according to the report.
Tea and coffee producers in Southern India will be particularly impacted by increased heat stress. “Nearly all producers will experience more than 30 additional days with extreme temperatures under the two most likely scenarios [RCP4.5 and RCP8.5]*,” according to the report. In coffee, rising temperatures increase pressure from weeds and pests, "forcing cooperatives to resort to the low-price, conventional market if product quality is too low." In the scenario, RCP8.5 coffee producers can expect 38 warmer to hot days annually globally compared to today.
A study in East Africa cited by the authors found that yields will decline by up to 40% in coffee and tea. The report considers “Arabica in particular to be a climate-sensitive species.”
Limited financial resources underlie the level of anxiety. African tea growers participating in the study identified 2019 as the first year climate change led to financial setbacks. India tea growers reported a milder financial impact beginning in 2019.
According to the report, Africa tea farmers view the fiscal impact of climate change as moderate to very severe. "In general, farmers perceive the highest levels of risk in connection with higher temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and the availability of water," according to the study financed by the European Union and conducted by [Vrije Universiteit] VU Amsterdam and the Bern University of Applied Sciences.
“Producers in Ghana [cocoa] are more pessimistic than Indian producers regarding the future," according to the study. According to the report, in India, producers are more concerned about the lack of labor than immediate financial risk.
Access to credit may be a limitation for farmers who wish to invest in their farms to better adapt to heat and less precipitation; according to the report, "most reported money lenders as a main source of credit."
The study included a review of 50 research papers that mainly identify climate change adaptations and “some that also considered mitigation aspects. Overall, few reports mentioned the farmers’ awareness of Fairtrade’s programmatic approach to climate change or their needs from these programs.”
The report notes that “some of the challenges that stood out were limited funding possibilities, especially since most farmers cannot sell 100% of their produce to Fairtrade and thus limiting their premium.”
According to the report, climate change impacts vary considerably across different regions, crops, and climate scenarios. The study suggests, “Future assessments need to go beyond generalized average impacts globally and should perhaps focus on regional and crop-specific approaches to adaptation.”
The report is free to download and available here.
*Footnote: Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are described in two climate scenarios through 2050. RCP4.5 is the current trajectory, and RCP8.5 is the more extreme scenario. RCP4.5 assumes global mitigation will enable the atmosphere to stabilize by 2100. RCP8.5 presents a future where mitigation efforts fail and greenhouse gases remain high.