Reviving Rwanda

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Rwanda’s investment in tea must anticipate and plan for long-term climate changes

By Leonie Joubert

Heavy rains hit Murang’a county in southwest Rwanda in December 2015, causing landslides that took out more than 2,000 tea bushes. Flooding also washed away a key bridge which cut off transportation. The story made local news, with farmers raising concerns about whether they would be able to repay the bank loans they had taken to establish their young plantations.

Heavy rains are typical of the impact that climate change will have on the industry in this East Africa tea-growing hub. Rwanda’s high mountains are ideal for growing quality tea, with total exports accounting for 15% of the country’s export earnings. But rising temperatures and increasingly unpredictable rainy seasons threaten tea production here.

In the past four decades, Rwanda’s average temperature has increased by about 1.2°C, according to Alphonse Mutabazi, the climate change program manager for the Rwandan Environment Management Authority (REMA). The rise is faster than the global average increase.

Rainfall patterns are also changing, resulting in good tea harvests is some seasons, but unexpectedly poor yields in other years. These erratic harvests make it difficult for farmers and factory operations to plan, according to Mutabazi. Lower-lying tea plantations are already marginal for quality tea production, and rising temperatures will further reduce the quality of the tea in the near term. In the long-term, low-lying areas are projected to become too hot to grow quality tea, particularly on farms growing old varietals and traditional farming practices.

Upsloping opportunities

Tea growing, especially for high-quality teas, needs a relatively cool climate.

It is upslope in the country’s high mountains that relief might lie, where cooler temperatures offer refuge and allow for future tea plantation development. These changes are also important for Rwanda’s plans to expand the tea sector, which it intends to double.

Three major new tea factories are already under development by international companies, with investment of more than $100 million. But the changing climate poses a threat to this kind of expansion. The future climate these plantations will be growing tea in will be different than conditions they’re planted in today. Producers need to plan with this in mind if they want to ensure high-quality production.

Uncertain plans

Changing climate conditions create greater uncertainty for the Rwandan tea industry, according to Paul Watkiss, who led a pilot project aimed at "mainstreaming" climate change into the tea and coffee industries. But with the right planning that takes account of climate uncertainty, the country can remain a leading export producer of tea, he says.

This means that existing plantations need to be managed to be more resilient to rising temperatures, and the increased risk of flooding and landslides, according to Watkiss. Future plantations need to be planned in locations that take account of a warmer climate in the future.

“Tea producers need to think about these actions now, but also about further changes in the medium term, 20 years or so, and the longer term, up to 50 years,” Watkiss says.

Tea producers need to start considering longer-term climate change when developing new plantations. It can take five years for new bushes to mature, and more than 10 years before producers see a return on investment. Developing new land means that producers are locked into their investment decisions for decades, up to 50 years or more.

Watkiss is working with the tea industry to ensure that it expands into areas that are suited to the kind of climate the region will experience in the coming decades. This also means planning across the entire tea value chain.

Spanning the supply chain

"There are many different parts to the supply chain which need to be part of this planning process. This involves the large international companies, which operate the factories that process and sell tea into the market," Watkiss explains. "But it also involves the smallholder farmers, which dominate tea production in Rwanda, who don’t have easy access to scientific information, and are more vulnerable to the changing climate."

Watkiss argues that this climate uncertainty should not be a reason for inaction or a reason to reduce tea investment in East African tea producing countries. With the right kind of information and planning, the tea industry can respond and adapt. Rwanda has been able to find international climate finance, to help start this process. Through the country’s national climate fund (FONERWA), it is supporting the tea industry to adapt to this uncertain future.

In parallel to the need to expand tea to higher altitudes, there are other climate adaptation options that farmers should consider such as; planting shade trees and growing tea under the forest canopy; mulching, planting drought-resistant, sun tolerant pest, and disease resistant varietals while practicing conservation agriculture.

The documentary “Adapting Rwanda: Growing Rwanda’s Tea and Coffee Sectors in a Changing Climate” is a work by the Future Climate for Africa program. It documents some of the smart measures that farmers and estate managers can take to safeguard tea and coffee – and people’s livelihoods – in the short to medium term. The film presents a pragmatic approach to climate-proof tea and coffee sector plans from the early design stage, through implementation and project finance.

Watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAl18ao1XiU&t=9s 

Future Climate for Africa will be releasing another documentary video on the impact of climate change on tea production in Kenya and Malawi in the coming weeks.

Learn more: futureclimateafrica.org

This is one in a series of articles for Future Climate for Africa examining the impact of climate change. Leonie Joubert  is a freelance journalist and author with a special interest in climate change, natural history, agriculture, energy, and wine.