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The outlook for the new 2021-22 coffee harvest in Indonesia, the world's 4th largest coffee producing nation, is already compromised by the ongoing negative effects of climate change.(File picture by Maja Wallengren)
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Indonesia's now completed 2020-21 coffee harvest ended between 1.4 and 1.6 million 60-kilogram bags smaller than expected after heavy rains and erratic weather patterns negatively effected yields across most key growing regions. (File picture by Maja Wallengren)
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The island of Sumatra which is home to over 60 percent of the entire Indonesian coffee cultivation has suffered from extreme and heavy rain fall, which in many cases have been many levels above what is considered for maximum rains in order for normal cherry development to proceed. (File picture by Maja Wallengren)
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As local consumption is expected to post a small recovery during the 2021-22 cycle after extended Covid-pandemic complications, exports from the new crop are expected to come in more or the less flat on the previous year and will not be able to offer any relief to the multiple and severe shortfall in coffee crops elsewhere in the world's leading growers Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia. (File picture by Maja Wallengren)
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The smaller than expected harvest in Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest coffee producing nation, follows lower crops in all the three leading world growers Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia further threatening an upcoming world shortage of coffee. Depicted is a view from a coffee producing area in West Sumatra.
Indonesia’s completed 2020-21 coffee production crop cycle ended with 1.4-1.6 million 60-kilogram bags below initial expectations after weather problems prevented full bean development and heavy rains caused cherry losses from fruit falling to the ground, industry officials and analysts said this week. The smaller-than-expected harvest in Indonesia, the world’s fourth largest coffee producing nation, follows lower crops in all the three leading world growers Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia because of irregular weather and extreme rain and heat patterns, which already is forecast to cause the biggest deficit to the global supply-demand balance in as much as 50 years, international analysts project.
The Indonesian 2020-21 harvest, for which the international cycle ended on Sep. 30, reached between 10.5-10.7 million bags, according to different estimates. This fell short of the Indonesian Agriculture Ministry’s initial prediction for the harvest to yield 12.1 million bags, which according to official figures was a 5.8% increase from the 2019-20 crop of 11.433 million bags. That figure, however, is significantly higher than the figures used by most of the local coffee trade.
“At the beginning of the harvest we had a lot of hope that this crop year which now has been completed would have produced a good output, but the rains were too heavy and in many coffee regions especially in Sumatra the rains came in much above the normal levels and caused harm to the crop,” an official from Indonesia’s Coffee Exporters Association, AEKI, told STiR Coffee and Tea. The vast majority of the total Indonesian coffee crop is cultivated on the island of Sumatra, with arabica coffee concentrated in the northern more mountainous half and robusta growing dominating the more tropical lowlands of southern Sumatra.
The Agriculture Ministry has yet to confirm any figures, but private traders and exporters in Indonesia believe the production reached between 10.5-10.7 million bags, while the US Department for Agriculture (USDA) in its last report said production ended flat on the previous year at 10.7 million bags after initially pegging a yield rise year-on-year. The growing negative effects from climate change across most of the Indonesian coffee belt, however, will continue to lead to declining production with output in the new 2021-22 crop cycle, for which harvesting is underway, pegged to present a small consecutive decline to reach 10.63 million bags, said USDA.
“Coffee production is forecast to modestly decline to 10.63 million [60 kilogram] bags in 2021/22 on lower yields in robusta and arabica growing regions,” said USDA in a report released last May when final figures were still being collected and received from the field. “Heavier than normal rainfall in late 2020 and early 2021 has negatively impacted the cherry ripening stage, resulting in instances of cracked or fallen cherries. The Meulaboh [Aceh Province] and Sibolga ]North Sumatera Province] weather stations recorded 4,185mm and 3,755mm of rainfall, respectively, between April 2020 to March 2021, exceeding or reaching the higher end of optimal rainfall for arabica crops,” it said.
Indonesia has the world’s second largest area cultivated with coffee after Brazil, with an estimated 1.2 million hectares – or over double the cultivated area of Vietnam which is the second largest coffee producing country in the world after Brazil. However, low average productivity for most of the past 10 years places Indonesia as the world’s fourth largest grower overall. About 90% of Indonesia’s total harvest is robusta but the 10% balance of arabica coffee is highly sought after in the specialty markets thanks to the many different and unique flavor profiles collected from regions spread out across all the main Indonesian coffee growing islands.
Home to 1.8-2.0 million smallholder coffee growers, the highest exports on record were in the 2012-13 crop cycle where Indonesia shipped 8.97 million bags from the best harvest ever with a total crop yielding 13.07 million bags, according to the International Coffee Organization.
Local coffee consumption in the new 2021-22 cycle, meanwhile, will reach 4.7 million bags, which represents a small recovery from demand estimated at 4.45 million bags in the 2020-21 marketing year, said USDA. Coffee exports from Indonesia, which suffered significant logistical constraints and delays from soaring freight prices and a worldwide shortage in containers because of multiple Covid shipping backlogs, are estimated to reach 6.5 million bags. If this figure materializes at the end of the new crop cycle it would represent a tiny rise over 2020-21 shipments of 6.4 million bags, UDSA figures showed.
But Indonesia would not be able to compensate for the shortfall in production and exports elsewhere in the world of coffee, with Brazil along expected to see output and exports reduced between a minimum of 12-15 million bags alone from the frost and drought damage that hit the South American coffee leader even before flowering for the 2022 harvest started.