Coffee production in Honduras has been affected by leaf rust (photo: Neil Palmer, CIAT)
The next coffee crop in Honduras could be around 12% lower than 2020/2021 because weather conditions have been favorable to the development of coffee leaf rust. Production in 2021/22 will be 5.5 million 60-kg bags (mil. bags), a 12% reduction compared to the previous year, according to a May 12 report from US Department of Agriculture’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN). The report said the incidence of Covid-19 in the country and the effect of hurricanes Eta and Iota on infrastructure in the country would mean that exports will also be lower. Combined, this would mean that in 2021/2022 exports are down to marketing year 2019/2020 levels.
The authors of the report said their prediction of a 5.5 mil.bag harvest assumes wet weather conditions that promote leaf rust. It also accounts for the use of fertilizers provided to around 90,000 small and medium-size famers by the government of Honduras. These farmers account for 87% of all Honduran producers and 84% of total coffee production in the country. By providing fertilizer, the government hopes to increase production, which contributes 5% to the country’s gross domestic product and 30% of agricultural GDP. The Honduran economy also depends on coffee export revenue to generate foreign exchange.
The authors of the report said the Covid-19 pandemic and Hurricanes Eta and Iota have not significantly affected production directly, but both have had a significant impact on trade and are expected to affect exports. The incidence of Covid-19 remains high in Honduras, not least because of low vaccination coverage. As a result, biosafety protocols such as workers keeping a safe distance from one another during maintenance and harvesting are expected to remain in place. A total of 2,183km of roads damaged by hurricanes Eta and Iota still need repairs.
The Lempira coffee variety planted in Honduras exhibited resistance to coffee leaf rust for many years, until the 2016/17 harvest. In April 2019, studies identified 16 new coffee rust strains in the country with different degrees of virulence and aggressiveness. Further research is being done and producers are relying on good agricultural practices to control rust. Weather conditions after the hurricanes favoured a 15-25% incidence of leaf rust in five departments of Honduras by the end of 2020. A stronger outbreak is expected during the 2021 rainy season, between May and November, because of higher levels of humidity. Parainema varieties used by some farmers are said to still be resistant to coffee rust, but climate variability has made other pests – such as the Indian coffee cricket – to become more prevalent in dry areas of the country. This pest and others can quickly spread in coffee farms without proper management.