World coffee production for 2021/22 will drop 6.2% or down 11.0 million bags from the previous year to 164.8 million, due primarily to Brazil’s combined effect of arabica trees entering the off year of the biennial production cycle and a weather‐related shortfall. As a result of lower output, global ending inventories will drop 7.9 million bags to 32.0 million. World coffee bean exports will go down 4.8 million bags to 115.5 million as lower exports from Brazil more than offset higher shipments from Vietnam. Global consumption is rising 1.8 million bags to 165.0 million, with the largest gains in the European Union, the United States, and Brazil. Coffee prices, as measured by the International Coffee Organization (ICO) monthly composite price index, have trended higher since June 2019.
Brazil: arabica output off 30% while robusta reaches record production
Arabica output in Brazil will drop a whopping 30% or down 14.7 million bags to 35.0 million compared to the previous season due to a combination of factors. The majority of producing areas are in the off year of the biennial production cycle, resulting in lower production potential for the upcoming crop. Additionally, adverse weather conditions lowered yields as drought and high temperatures in major coffee growing regions affected blossoming as well as fruit setting and development. There were also reports that many growers pruned their trees at above‐average rates in response to last year’s record crop, thus lowering yields. The bulk of the arabica harvest started in May and June.
The robusta harvest continues expanding and willreach a record 21.3 million bags, up 1.1 million. Good rainfall volumes aided fruit development in the major producing states of Espirito Santo, Rondonia, and Bahia. Most of the robusta harvest started in April and May.
The combined arabica and robusta harvest will go down 13.6 million bags to 56.3 million. Despite lower output, consumption will continue its rise to a record 23.7 million bags. With reduced supplies, bean exports will drop 9.0 million bags to 32.0 million and ending stocks will decline 2.5 million bags to 1.5 million.
Vietnam production rebounds; Colombia down slightly
Vietnam will increase production 1.8 million bags to 30.8 million following last year’s dry growing conditions. With robusta accounting for over 95% of total output and robusta prices trending higher over the last 12 months, many growers were motivated to boost yields by incurring irrigation costs during the normally drier period January-March. Farmers continue to intercrop coffee with fruits, such as avocado and durian, to increase incomes. Bean exports are forecast to jump 3.0 million bags to 26.0 million, lowering inventories slightly.
Colombia arabica production will be 200,000 bags lower to 14.1 million although output remains strong on favorable growing conditions. The National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia (FEDECAFE) estimates that nearly 85% of coffee area is now planted with rust resistant varieties, compared to just 35 percent in 2008/09 when adverse weather conditions caused rust to proliferate, lowering output by one‐third. Since then, yields increased about 30% due largely to the renovation program that replaced older, lower‐yielding trees with rust‐resistant varieties. The program also reduced the average age of coffee trees from 15 to 6.9 years, further boosting yields. Bean exports will go down down 100,000 bags to 12.4 million.
Indonesia and India slip modestly
Indonesia production will slip a modest 100,000 bags to 10.6 million, with most of the loss occurring in robusta output. Robusta production will be nearly 9.4 million bags on mostly favorable growing conditions in the lowland areas of Southern Sumatra and Java, where approximately 75% is grown. Heavy rains in northern Sumatra, where approximately 60% of arabica output is derived, will have lower yields, with output down slightly to almost 1.3 million bags. Ending stocks will be halved to just 900,000 bags to sustain rising consumption and strong exports.
India production will add 300,000 bags to 5.4 million on higher robusta output in Karnataka, the largest coffee producing state. Arabica will be modestly lower as it enters the off year of the biennial production cycle. Bean exports will be unchanged at 3.7 million bags.
Americas production down slightly
Total output for Central America and Mexico will go down slightly by 400,000 bags to 17.4 million as slight gains in Guatemala, Nicaragua, and Mexico are more than offset by Honduras, which is forecast to drop 700,000 bags to 5.5 million. Honduras is the dominant producer in the region, accounting for approximately one‐third of output. Unfortunately, weather conditions following hurricane Eta and Iota caused leaf rust to jump from low single‐digits to 15‐25%, depending on the region, lowering yields. Bean exports for the region will lose 300,000 bags to 14.4 million mainly due to lower exportable supplies in Honduras. Nearly half of the region’s exports go to the European Union, followed by about one‐third to the United States.
Imports to EU and US down
European Union imports will drop 5.55% or down 2.5 million bags to 42.5 million. Europe accounts for 40% of the world’s coffee bean imports. Top suppliers to Europe are Brazil (34%), Vietnam (24%), Honduras (8%), and Colombia (6%). Ending stocks will drop 2.1 million bags to 14.0 million to sustain a modest increase in consumption.
The United States imports the second‐largest amount of coffee beans in the world and will go down slightly – down 1.2% or 300,000 bags— to 24.2 million. Top suppliers to US are Brazil (30 %), Colombia (21%), Vietnam (11%), and Nicaragua (5%). Ending stocks will slide 700,000 bags to 5.7 million.
Revised previous reports 2020/21
World production revised up 300,000 bags from the December 2020 estimate to 175.8 million.
- Brazil is up 2.0 million bags to 69.9 million, largely due to updated data for arabica output;
- Uganda revised 1.2 million bags higher to 6.0 million largely due to increased area;
- Peru lowered 1.1 million bags to 3.4 million on updated area and yield data;
- Cote d’Ivoire reduced 700,000 bags to 1.1 million on lower yields.
World bean exports raised 2.8 million bags to 120.3 million.
- Brazil raised 4.0 million bags to 41.0 million on higher exportable supplies;
- Peru down 900,000 bags to 3.3 million on reduced exportable supplies
- Vietnam lowered 800,000 bags to 23.0 million on slower shipments to the European Union and United States;
- Cote d’Ivoire reduced 600,000 bags to 900,000 bags on lower exportable supplies.
World ending stocks lowered 1.4 million bags to 39.9 million.
- Brazil lowered 1.3 million bags to 4.0 million on higher shipments;
- European Union revised 1.6 million bags higher to 16.1 million on updated data from the European Coffee Federation;
- The United States down 600,000 bags to 6.4 million on lower‐than‐anticipated consumption.
The next release of this publication will be on December 17, 2021. The individual country reports can be obtained on FAS Online at: https://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx. Please visit https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/coffee‐world‐markets‐and‐trade to view archived and future releases. The next release of this circular is scheduled for November 2021. To receive the circular via email, go to: https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new. The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline. Please refer to the USDA‐FAS Coffee website at: https://www.fas.usda.gov/commodities/coffee for additional data and analysis.